Forecasting Seasonal Influenza at a Local Level
Seasonal influenza poses a significant health burden each year. During the 2024-2025 influenza season in Minnesota, there were 7,590 hospitalizations, 370 deaths, 6 pediatric deaths, 207 school outbreaks, and 135 long-term care outbreaks. Minnesota flu hospitalizations had a notably high and prolonged peak in January and February 2025, causing substantial burden among health systems. Flu forecasting tools can support situational awareness, operational decisions, and surge planning; however, forecasting tools are typically only available at the national- or state-level. There is a need for flu forecasting tools among local public health departments, where local data and forecasts can inform localized real-world action.
Our Work
In collaboration with epiENGAGE, a member of Insight Net, MADMC is piloting seasonal influenza forecasts with local health departments in Minnesota. epiENGAGE will solicit seasonal influenza forecast submissions for Minnesota localities using their MetroCast Hub infrastructure, while MADMC will recruit a set of local public health department partners to participate in the pilot test. Throughout the respiratory season, MADMC will meet with local partners to review forecast outputs. We will evaluate the effectiveness of this effort on supporting situational awareness and informing decisions being made by local public health partners.
